If Japan settles around Germany's 1975–1994 average, the total fertility rate would be about 1.38 by around 2025
Reference record: this forecast was written from a past vantage point and the AI may have learned the outcome, so it does not count toward the record
- Number
- P-0007
- Predicted on (published)
- 2026-10-19
- Data as of
- 1995-12-31
- Scenario
- A: ドイツ型の低い水準に落ち着く
- Forecast
- If Japan settles around Germany's 1975–1994 average, the total fertility rate would be about 1.38 by around 2025Japan · 2025 · down
- Judging criterion
- The published 2025 value of Total fertility rate (Japan, Vital Statistics) for Japan of about 1.38 (±5%: 1.311–1.449) counts as a hit. Outside that range but below the 1994 value of 1.5 counts as partly right. Checked on 2026-10-16
- Check date
- 2026-10-16
- Result
- ◐ Partial
- Value used
- 1.14 births per woman (2025)
- Kind of value
- finalMHLW summary of the final Vital Statistics figures
- Source
- Ministry of Health, Labour and Welfare (Vital Statistics)Summary of final figures, Table 1 (06_hyoR07.xlsx)Series page → · Source page ↗
- Retrieved
- 2026-10-15
- Checked on
- 2026-10-22
- Original article
- Japan in 1995: Delayed Marriage Is the Core of Falling Births
Judged on the value retrieved by the check date 2026-10-16 (retrieved 2026-10-15).
Scenarios for the same question
Main scenario: A (P-0007)Closest to the actual value: D (P-0010)
- P-0007 A: ドイツ型の低い水準に落ち着くMain
- P-0008 B: 下げ止まるNot main (not counted)
- P-0009 C: 両立支援で持ち直すNot main (not counted)
- P-0010 D: もう10年分下がって止まるNot main (not counted)
Measured as the distance from the actual value to each scenario’s hit band (zero if inside). For display only; it changes no result and no count.
Basis for the main scenario (article text)
“The AI considers Scenario A the most likely”
Main-scenario decision (2026-10-22): In the version that made the forecast, the Scenario A paragraph says the AI considers Scenario A the most likely. Main scenario: A (P-0007). It is a Back to the Future reference record, so it does not count
The judging criterion and check date are fixed and cannot be changed later.
The judging criterion was fixed on 2026-10-22 (not at the time the forecast was made).
Common judging rule
The same rule applies to every forecast. It was set before any outcome was looked at and will not be changed.
- Quantities (people, counts, money, fertility rate, etc.): a value written as "about" or "around" is a hit if the actual is within ±5%.
- Rates (growth rates or shares in %): a hit within ±0.3 percentage points.
- Ranges (e.g. 1.6–1.7): a hit if the actual is inside the range. With "around", both ends are widened by the margin above (±5% for quantities, ±0.3 points for rates).
- "Flat": a hit if the change is within ±2% for quantities, or ±0.3 points for rates.
- Outside the hit band but in the right direction (up or down): partial. Wrong direction: miss.