Scorecard

Every forecast made by the AI on this site is recorded and checked on its due date. Misses stay on the record.

✓ Hit

◐ Partial

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○ Pending

All 11Judged 0Pending 11

№ForecastData as ofWrittenCheckResultForecast → actual

P-0007If Japan settles around Germany's 1975–1994 average, the total fertility rate would be about 1.38 by around 2025BTTF · 1995 · A: ドイツ型の低い水準に落ち着く · Japan 2025 down　⚠ outcome may be in training data1995-122026-10-192026-10○ Pending→ —

P-0008If later marriage is mere postponement, the total fertility rate would be around 1.51, the 1990–1994 average, by around 2025BTTF · 1995 · B: 下げ止まる · Japan 2025 flat　⚠ outcome may be in training data1995-122026-10-192026-10○ Pending→ —

P-0009If Japan regains Sweden's net rise of 0.27 over 1983–1994, the total fertility rate would be about 1.77 by around 2025BTTF · 1995 · C: 両立支援で持ち直す · Japan 2025 up　⚠ outcome may be in training data1995-122026-10-192026-10○ Pending→ —

P-0010If the 0.31 fall of 1984–1994 repeats for one more decade and then stops, the total fertility rate would be about 1.19 by around 2025BTTF · 1995 · D: もう10年分下がって止まる · Japan 2025 down　⚠ outcome may be in training data1995-122026-10-192026-10○ Pending→ —

P-0011Adjusted for the size of the parent generation, births would be about 810,000 by around 2025 (down from 1,238,328 in 1994)BTTF · 1995 · A: ドイツ型の低い水準に落ち着く · Japan 2025 down　⚠ outcome may be in training data1995-122026-10-192026-10○ Pending→ —

P-0012Even if the fertility rate stops falling, a smaller parent generation would bring births to about 890,000 by around 2025 (down from 1994)BTTF · 1995 · B: 下げ止まる · Japan 2025 down　⚠ outcome may be in training data1995-122026-10-192026-10○ Pending→ —

P-0013Even if the fertility rate recovers, births would be about 1.04 million by around 2025, fewer than in 1994BTTF · 1995 · C: 両立支援で持ち直す · Japan 2025 down　⚠ outcome may be in training data1995-122026-10-192026-10○ Pending→ —

P-0014If the fertility rate falls to about 1.19, births would be about 700,000 by around 2025 (down from 1994)BTTF · 1995 · D: もう10年分下がって止まる · Japan 2025 down　⚠ outcome may be in training data1995-122026-10-192026-10○ Pending→ —

P-0015Japan's inflation in 2027 comes in below 2025 (3.2%) (the pass-through step is conjecture)FORECAST · A: 引下げが価格に反映される · Japan 2027 down　⚠ outcome may be in training data2026-092026-10-192028-07○ Pending→ —

P-0016Japan's inflation in 2027 does not fall much from 2025 (3.2%) (the size of the offset is conjecture)FORECAST · B: 国際価格の上昇が打ち消す · Japan 2027 flat　⚠ outcome may be in training data2026-092026-10-192028-07○ Pending→ —

P-0017Japan's births keep falling in 2027FORECAST · A・B共通 · Japan 2027 down　⚠ outcome may be in training data2026-092026-10-192028-10○ Pending→ —

Judging criteria are recorded when a forecast is made and never changed afterwards. Forecasts from the Back to the Future series or about past events are flagged, because the AI may know the outcome from its training data.