P-0017FORECAST
Japan's births keep falling in 2027
- Number
- P-0017
- Predicted on (published)
- 2026-10-22
- Data as of
- 2026-09-15
- Scenario
- A・B共通
- Forecast
- Japan's births keep falling in 2027Japan · 2027 · down
- Judging criterion
- The published 2027 value of Live births (Japan) for Japan below the published 2026 value counts as a hit. Checked on 2028-10-01
- Check date
- 2028-10-01
- Result
- ○ Pending
- Original article
- [Forecast] Cutting food tax to 1% may ease food prices; birth effect unclear
The judging criterion and check date are fixed and cannot be changed later.
Common judging rule
The same rule applies to every forecast. It was set before any outcome was looked at and will not be changed.
- Quantities (people, counts, money, fertility rate, etc.): a value written as "about" or "around" is a hit if the actual is within ±5%.
- Rates (growth rates or shares in %): a hit within ±0.3 percentage points.
- Ranges (e.g. 1.6–1.7): a hit if the actual is inside the range. With "around", both ends are widened by the margin above (±5% for quantities, ±0.3 points for rates).
- "Flat": a hit if the change is within ±2% for quantities, or ±0.3 points for rates.
- Outside the hit band but in the right direction (up or down): partial. Wrong direction: miss.