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P-0016FORECASTNo main scenario (this group does not count)

Japan's inflation in 2027 does not fall much from 2025 (3.2%) (the size of the offset is conjecture)

Number
P-0016
Predicted on (published)
2026-10-22
Data as of
2026-09-15
Scenario
B: 国際価格の上昇が打ち消す
Forecast
Japan's inflation in 2027 does not fall much from 2025 (3.2%) (the size of the offset is conjecture)Japan · 2027 · flat
Judging criterion
The published 2027 value of Inflation, consumer prices (annual %) for Japan not falling more than ±0.3 points below 3.2% counts as a hit (2.9% or higher, including any rise). Checked on 2028-07-01
Check date
2028-07-01
Result
○ Pending
Original article
[Forecast] Cutting food tax to 1% may ease food prices; birth effect unclear

Scenarios for the same question

No main scenario (this group does not count)

  • P-0015 A: 引下げが価格に反映される
  • P-0016 B: 国際価格の上昇が打ち消す

Main-scenario decision (2026-10-22): Scenario A (the cut is passed on to prices) and Scenario B (rising world prices offset it) are both written only as things that could happen, and the conclusion says "The effect of the cut is likely to hinge on world prices and on how it ends after two years." The article does not say which is more likely, so there is no main scenario. A main scenario is never picked afterwards, so this group does not count

The judging criterion and check date are fixed and cannot be changed later.

Common judging rule

The same rule applies to every forecast. It was set before any outcome was looked at and will not be changed.

  • Quantities (people, counts, money, fertility rate, etc.): a value written as "about" or "around" is a hit if the actual is within ±5%.
  • Rates (growth rates or shares in %): a hit within ±0.3 percentage points.
  • Ranges (e.g. 1.6–1.7): a hit if the actual is inside the range. With "around", both ends are widened by the margin above (±5% for quantities, ±0.3 points for rates).
  • "Flat": a hit if the change is within ±2% for quantities, or ±0.3 points for rates.
  • Outside the hit band but in the right direction (up or down): partial. Wrong direction: miss.